Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions, betting tips and odds: Spanish foes set for stalemate

Where to watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

You can watch Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid in the Champions League at 8pm on Tuesday, March 4, live on TNT Sports 1

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid prediction & best bet

1-1 draw
1pt 6-1 bet365

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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid odds

Here are the latest odds ahead of Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid in the Champions League

Odds correct at time of publishing

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Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions

Carlo Ancelotti's gamble on picking a full-strength side backfired at the weekend and his fatigued Real Madrid superstars could be in for a tricky test against bitter rivals Atletico in Tuesday's Champions League last-16 first leg.

Real were beaten 2-1 away to Real Betis on Saturday, while Atleti in contrast did have the resources to rest at least some of their stars – Julian Alvarez and Marcos Llorente started on the bench – and also beat a strong Athletic Bilbao side 1-0. 

Confidence should be high in Diego Simeone's squad following that result against a side who had avoided defeat in their previous 16 La Liga games, and they will fancy their chances of taking the initiative in this Champions League round-of-16 tie. 

Anything other than a battering would be seen as a decent result by Simeone, as he will fancy his team's chances of turning the tie in the second leg thanks to the Metropolitano's cauldron-like atmosphere, but there is reason to believe they can go one better at the Bernabeu. 

Real's defeat at Betis was certainly not their first poor result of 2025. They have also been beaten 1-0 by Espanyol and held to a 1-1 draw by Osasuna, and Atleti, thanks to the talent of Antoine Griezmann, Alvarez and Samuel Lino, have more than enough quality to keep things level before the second leg. 

Jude Bellingham missed the defeat at Betis and his absence was sorely felt. The England star is also suspended for this first leg and the loss of his dynamism and creativity could leave Real exposed to Atleti's energetic press and lacking the tools to unlock a stubborn defence too often. 

Goals are unlikely to flow at the Bernabeu as the two rivals feel each other out, so backing a 1-1 draw, the scoreline of the past three Madrid derbies, makes great appeal. 

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Key stat

The last three Madrid derbies have all ended 1-1.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid team news

Real Madrid
Jude Bellingham is suspended and misses out alongside injured defenders Eder Militao, Jesus Vallejo and Dani Carvajal, as well as midfielder Dani Ceballos.

Atletico Madrid
Experienced duo Cesar Azpilicueta and Koke are Atleti's only absentees.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predicted line-ups

Real Madrid (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Valverde, Rudiger, Asencio, Mendy; Tchouameni, Camavinga; Rodrygo, Diaz, Vinicius; Mbappe.
Subs: Lunin, Vazquez, Alaba, Garcia, Modric, Guler, Endrick.

Atletico Madrid (4-4-2): Oblak; Llorente, Le Normand, Gimenez, Galan; Simeone, De Paul, Barrios, Lino; Griezmann, Alvarez.
Subs: Molina, Witsel, Lenglet, Gallagher, Lemar, Correa, Sorloth.

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• Early payout if your football team goes two goals ahead

New customer offer. Max stake £1. Winnings paid in cash at normal odds and are topped up to the enhanced price in Free Bets. Free bets are valid 7 days, only deposits with cards and Apple Pay are eligible. Excludes multiples & in-play bets. T&C's apply. Please gamble responsibly.

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Bet Builder player stats

Stats refer to league games only; does not include unavailable players

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid bet builder predictions

Draw
The last three Madrid derbies finished level and the rivals look well matched again.

Brahim Diaz over 0.5 shots on target
The Moroccan should start in Jude Bellingham's absence and he has scored twice in 186 minutes against Atleti when playing for Real.

Under five cards
None of the last three Madrid derbies have seen more than four cards shown and referee Clement Turpin is averaging just two per game in the Champions League this term.

Pays out at 14-1 with bet365

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