Simon Giles: Manchester United boss Amorim targets slow-burning success rather than a quick fix

A stunning FA Cup final win over Manchester City was deemed to have saved Manchester United's otherwise dismal 2023-24 campaign.

And despite a battling win over Ipswich on Wednesday, it is increasingly hard to envisage cup salvation this term, as the Red Devils head into last-16 ties with Fulham and Real Sociedad in the FA Cup and Europa League.

Former boss Erik ten Hag belatedly changed the flawed tactical set-up that had led to his side's chaotic end-to-end games last season.

Ten Hag switched to a more compact 4-2-2-2 system in the final weeks of the campaign but it seems unlikely that his successor Ruben Amorim will make similar compromises.

Amorim's focus has been on assessing the squad he inherited, trying to get across basic principles and initiating a cultural reset at Old Trafford.

Rather than selling out his long-term vision and targeting an initial ‘bounce’, Amorim's heavy squad rotation means his first few months at United have almost resembled an extended pre-season for next term.

Short-term decision-making has dragged United into their current mess. Red Devils fans, then, can probably buy into Amorim's attempt to break the cycle of his recent predecessors, whose initial promise has fizzled out after a season or two.

But initial pain can only be stomached if there is the promise of better times to come. The former Sporting boss must offer some glimpses of how things could improve, as even he could not have believed how bad some of his side's early performances would be.

After their flattering 2-1 win over Leicester in the last round of the FA Cup, Amorim commented: "I cannot focus just on saving the season with the momentum of the cup. That's not the way I see football, it's not the way I see Manchester United".

If the priority was salvaging this season then the conservative 4-2-3-1 formation that United played under caretaker boss Ruud van Nistelrooy was probably the style that best suits this squad.

It is a squad that reflects the bad decisions taken over several years, which cannot be instantly undone.

The need for a makeover to raise the physical and technical levels was already undeniable but, by appointing Amorim, the decision-makers at the club gave themselves more holes to fill for his preferred three-at-the-back system.

As the accompanying table shows, prior to Amorim's arrival United's performance levels were mid-table level, albeit hampered by bad luck in front of goal, but they have slipped even lower. 

However, given the scale of the stylistic shift and the lack of time on the training ground, it may be fairer to judge the Portuguese coach at around this point of next season.

The basic iteration of his system, as we have seen in the early stages of his career in England, has proved easy for opponents to set up against.

As well as learning which members of the current squad can or cannot be relied on in future seasons, Amorim is also finding out the hard way just how high the tactical level of the Premier League is.

His system, essentially, takes an attacker off the pitch and replaces them with an extra centre-back. So far, though, United fans are seeing all of the downside of a three-at-the-back system – the diminished attacking options – but are not getting the supposed upside of a meaner defence.

Lapses mean too many of the chances they allow are big ones, often by way of set-pieces.

In eight of his 16 games the crucial opening goal has been conceded by his side via a set-piece, an unacceptable weakness, particularly given their lack of attacking firepower.

United's wing-backs have operated more like full-backs than wingers and a serious injury to Amad Diallo has robbed them of one of their few attacking sparks.

The upside of the system has been mostly demonstrated in away matches against the top sides, in which the extra man at the back allowed them to defend by keeping the ball more easily. 

They have posted far higher possession totals in that type of fixture than they did under Ten Hag, whose tactics meant they would often be penned in.

The drawback is that at Old Trafford, playing the extra defender and amassing possession without obvious attacking intent frustrates the home crowd.

When they do go direct, confidence-shot striker Rasmus Hojlund struggles to hold the ball up and they have less numbers in advanced positions to win second balls.

United's midfield is usually outnumbered so the system relies on one of the 'spare' defenders stepping up. However, only Lisandro Martinez, who had started to chip in with goals and assists prior to his recent season-ending injury, looked consistently comfortable in this role.

One of Martinez's goals was against Sunday's opponents Fulham on January 26, when United completed the league double over the Cottagers. Both wins, though, were tight 1-0 successes settled by late strikes.

Amorim's men are marginal 8-11 favourites to qualify from their Europa League tie against Real Sociedad but they will be wary that their last six European knockout-stage eliminations came against Spanish sides.

Football's narrative constantly fluctuates between whether a manager's job is to 'get the most out of what they’ve got' or to have their own 'clear style of play' and work towards that vision.

Amorim falls into the latter category. Whether he can achieve his long-term goals at United will depend on whether the debt-laden and underperforming off-field structure can provide the better and more suitable players to bring his vision to fruition.

Read more from Simon:

Forest's European prospects remain healthy despite their tough upcoming run 

Trophy-chasing Newcastle must maintain impressive form against the top teams 

No fluke about Bournemouth's push for Europe under inspirational Iraola 

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