Il Est Francais primed for Ryanair Chase bid - and Noel George has a clear plan on how to win it

Noel George believes Il Est Francais is primed to add to the recent history of the Ryanair Chase, with the dashing French front-runner out to emulate a host of positively ridden winners including Vautour, Un De Sceaux and Allaho. 

George says the record of such horses was a big factor in reaching the decision where Il Est Francais is “90 per cent certain” to line up in the Ryanair over two and a half miles next Thursday, with the option of the BetMGM Champion Chase a day earlier being kept in reserve in case of a sudden deterioration in the ground or a setback for that race's odds-on favourite Jonbon. 

Dan Skelton reacted positively to the news that Il Est Francais would be the likely pace angle in the Ryanair, arguing that honest fractions would see the cream rise to the top, which he hopes will be a positive for last year’s winner Protektorat. 

George was speaking after watching Il Est Francais and James Reveley school in Avilly Saint-Leonard on Tuesday, when the King George runner-up put in his usual slick round of jumping around three circuits of the training grounds.  

“I’ve been through all the stats and horses that have been ridden aggressively and have gone from the front have a great record,” said George. “I didn’t think the New course versus the Old course was a huge factor but the fact horses that go from the front and dominate in the Ryanair have a great record played a big part.

“You’ve got Allaho, Un De Sceaux and McCoy’s last winner of it, Uxizandre; they have a great record going from the front, Vautour as well. 

“I school him lots because he enjoys it and at Cheltenham the fences do come thick and fast, his jumping is a huge asset. James will hopefully be pinging fences and will be able to fill him up all the time.”

Il Est Francais made all on his first trip to Britain when landing the Kauto Star Chase in December 2023 and came close to repeating the trick at Christmas in the King George before being reeled in after the last by Banbridge.

George pointed to the less than ideal preparation he and training partner Amanda Zetterholm had going to Kempton after Il Est Francais was pulled up at Auteuil on November 17, and believes Reveley will not have to be quite so gung-ho next week. 

“I’ll have a good chat with James but I think we’ll be able to dictate the race more,” he said. 

Il Est Francais and James Reveley are 90 per cent certain to line up in Thursday's Ryanair ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

“At Kempton we let him roll and do his own thing because we didn’t want him to get all tense after what had happened before. I think we’ll probably ride more of a waiting race from the front I’d imagine, then let him bowl down the hill.”

Il Est Francais has yet to race on an undulating track but George does not expect the unique contours of Cheltenham to pose undue problems for the seven-year-old. 

He said: “There’s the Cheltenham factor, which a lot of people have a question mark over. But for me if you watch the way he jumps and the way he’s balanced, I couldn’t think of a better horse to ride round the place myself. It’s the ones who aren’t balanced you need to be worried about. And I think the dry forecast definitely helps us. We know our horse likes good ground whereas some of the others might want a bit more cut potentially.

“The weather forecast is in his favour and the fact that the Ryanair will be run on fresh ground on Thursday is a big advantage too.”

Protektorat and Harry Skelton will be out to repeat last year's success in the Ryanair ChaseCredit: Patrick McCann

Il Est Francais is a general 3-1 second favourite behind Fact To File – although Willie Mullins and JP McManus have yet to confirm the Ryanair as his festival target – while Protektorat was cut in a few places on Tuesday and is no bigger than 6-1 for a repeat victory.

"It doesn't change anything for us as we always expected him to go,” said Skelton. “A good strong front-runner in the field makes it a very honest race and we're not frightened of that. A true pace means the best horse should win and we hope we have the best horse. He's the defending champion and he's in good form."

George and Zetterholm travel to Cheltenham next week with two major chances, with the McManus-owned Stencil a general 5-1 market leader for Tuesday’s Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap.

Fred Winter favourite Stencil and James Reveley head out to school at Avilly Saint-Leoanrd on TuesdayCredit: Racing Post/Burton

Stencil was originally rated 134 by the BHA handicapper after his second-placed effort behind East India Dock on trials day but was raised 1lb to 135 when the weights for the handicaps were announced a week ago.

“I think he’s on a pretty fair mark," said George. "I wouldn’t say we’re well in but carrying a bit of weight won’t be an issue because he’s big and strong. For me he’s a Grade horse running in a handicap so hopefully that will have us bang there. 

"Of the horses above us in the weights, on French form I think we’re well treated and I’m looking forward to running him.”

Ryanair view from our tipsters: 'Fact To File is the worst price of the festival'

It depends on the ground but, if the forecast is right and it's no worse than good to soft, then it's probably the right call to go for the Ryanair.

We know Il Est Francais stays three miles but he probably has the speed for two, and maybe this intermediate trip will be ideal. However, if the ground is soft or heavy then I would sway towards the Champion Chase.

He has a huge chance wherever he runs and is probably versatile enough to win either race under the right conditions. The bigger concerns are that he has never run at Cheltenham and has thrown in stinkers on two of his last four starts, both on the back of good efforts.
Graeme Rodway

Fact to File: favourite for the Ryanair ChaseCredit: Edward Whitaker

I think Fact To File is the worst price of the festival. The form of his Brown Advisory isn’t good. Okay, he won the John Durkan at the start of the season, but that’s Galopin Des Champs’ warm-up, and then twice since he’s just looked a bit laboured. He couldn’t beat Grangeclare West last time in the Irish Gold Cup.

Everyone is saying Fact To File's definitely going to improve back at this trip, but is he as good as people think he is? On ratings and form, he isn’t as good as Protektorat. I think 6-4 is a really, really bad price for what he has done so far. 

If Il Est Francais runs here, he might be 20 lengths in front of the rest coming down the hill and he might be hard to catch. He could be the superstar, but I think Protektorat is very solid. He always runs his race and likes Cheltenham. What’s not to like?
Tom Segal

Ryanair Chase (3.20 Cheltenham, March 13)
Sky Bet: 6-4 Fact To File, 3 Il Est Francais, 4 Spillane's Tower, Gaelic Warrior, Banbridge, 9-2 Protektorat, 10 Energumene, 12 Djelo, Found A Fifty, 14 bar. 

Read these next:

‘I was the only one who bid for him’ - the remarkable tale of the ITV Racing star bought for £1,000 

'Majborough is certainly not bombproof - and this 66-1 chance is an interesting alternative' 

Got Festival Fever? Racing Post+ has everything you need - and right now there's 40% off for Cheltenham 

Don't miss your invaluable companion to the Cheltenham Festival, out now. Order here